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Overdiagnosis of lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography screening: meta-analysis of the randomised clinical trials

John Brodersen, Theis Voss, Frederik Martiny, Volkert Siersma, Alexandra Barratt, Bruno Heleno
Breathe 2020 16: 200013; DOI: 10.1183/20734735.0013-2020
John Brodersen
1The Section of General Practice and the Research Unit for General Practice, Dept of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
2The Research Unit for General Practice in Region Zealand, Sorø, Denmark
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  • For correspondence: jobr@sund.ku.dk
Theis Voss
1The Section of General Practice and the Research Unit for General Practice, Dept of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
2The Research Unit for General Practice in Region Zealand, Sorø, Denmark
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Frederik Martiny
1The Section of General Practice and the Research Unit for General Practice, Dept of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
2The Research Unit for General Practice in Region Zealand, Sorø, Denmark
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Volkert Siersma
1The Section of General Practice and the Research Unit for General Practice, Dept of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
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Alexandra Barratt
3Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
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Bruno Heleno
4CEDOC, Chronic Diseases Research Centre, NOVA Medical School, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
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    Figure 1

    Forest plot of the RR of the cumulative incidence of lung cancer (estimates >1 represent overdiagnosis). The meta-analysis includes all trials, regardless of bias assessment. Trials are listed alphabetically. M-H: Mantel-Haenszel; df: degrees of freedom.

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    Figure 2

    Forest plot of estimates of overdiagnosis defined as the fraction of screen-detected lung cancers that represent overdiagnosis. Meta-analysis includes all trials, regardless of bias assessment. Trials are listed alphabetically. IV: inverse variance; df: degrees of freedom.

  • Figure 3
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    Figure 3

    Forest plot of the RR of the cumulative incidence of lung cancer (estimates >1 represent overdiagnosis). The meta-analysis only includes low risk of bias trials. Trials are listed alphabetically. M-H: Mantel-Haenszel; df: degrees of freedom.

  • Figure 4
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    Figure 4

    Forest plot of estimates of overdiagnosis defined as the fraction of screen-detected lung cancers that represent overdiagnosis. The meta-analysis only includes low risk of bias trials. Trials are listed alphabetically. IV: inverse variance; df: degrees of freedom.

Tables

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  • Table 1

    Characteristics of included studies

    Trial namePopulation characteristicsIntervention (screening interval months/rounds)Total subjects (intervention/control arm subjects)ControlFollow-up time after last screen yearsParticipation rateContamination rate
    DLCSTMen and women aged 50–70 years, smokers and former smokers ≥20 pack-years
    Former smokers must have quit <10 years prior
    LDCT (12/5)4104 (2052/2052)Usual care595.5%20.3%
    ITALUNGMen and women aged 55–69 years, smokers and former smokers ≥20 pack-years in past 10 yearsLDCT (12/4)3206 (1613/1593)Usual care581%Not reported
    LUSIMen and woman aged 50–69 years, smokers and former smokers (cessation <10 years) with ≥25 years of smoking ≥15 cigarettes a day or 30 years of smoking 10 cigarettes per dayLDCT (12/5)4052 (2029/2023)Usual care3>90%8.7%
    MILDMen and women aged 49–75 years, current or former (cessation <10 years) ≥20 pack-yearsLDCT (12 or 24/6 or 3)
    Median duration of screening was 6.2 years
    4099 (2376/1723)Usual careThe follow-up since last screening round is unclear95.1% in the biennial and 96.1% in the annual LDCT group1.2%
    NELSONMen aged 50–74 years, current or former smokers (who had quit ≤10 years ago) who had smoked >15 cigarettes a day for >25 years or >10 cigarettes a day for >30 yearsLDCT (12, 24, 30/4)13 195 (6583/6612)Usual care4.585.8% in total (lowest at round 4 with 67.4% and highest at round 1 with 95.8%)Not reported

Supplementary Materials

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    Table S1. Characteristics of identified studies EDU-0013-2020.tableS1

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Overdiagnosis of lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography screening: meta-analysis of the randomised clinical trials
John Brodersen, Theis Voss, Frederik Martiny, Volkert Siersma, Alexandra Barratt, Bruno Heleno
Breathe Mar 2020, 16 (1) 200013; DOI: 10.1183/20734735.0013-2020

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Overdiagnosis of lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography screening: meta-analysis of the randomised clinical trials
John Brodersen, Theis Voss, Frederik Martiny, Volkert Siersma, Alexandra Barratt, Bruno Heleno
Breathe Mar 2020, 16 (1) 200013; DOI: 10.1183/20734735.0013-2020
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